Papua New Guinea's turmoil is an expression of the explosive social tensions produced by the austerity policies imposed by the Prime Minister Peter Oneill over the past six years. O’Neill seized office in 2011 by ousting his predecessor Michael Somare in an illegal parliamentary coup supported by Canberra, which regarded Somare as too close to Beijing. Oneill is weighing his options, and cashing in on the super power rivalry. And, he continues to make blunders with PNG's first US$500 million Eurobond offer, which is the moment of truth as he plays his end game. PNG is sinking in debt.
O’Neill has clung to power in the face of struggles by students and workers over inequality, corruption and the country’s deepening social crisis. The government has increasingly turned to police-state measures to suppress opposition. The development agenda underpinned by Prime Minister Peter Oneill's Alotau 1 and Alotau 2 Accords seem just hollow now. It means the country may be on the verge of collapse, and Peter Oneill has no answer to deliver the country. The LNG economic boom promised by the Australian-backed gas project failed to deliver PNG, the economic boom all false.
The new Oneill - Abel government that took office after the 2017 National General Elections immediately confronted a deepening fiscal crisis. The Midyear Economic and Fiscal Outlook from the Treasury revealed a deficit one billion Kina ($US309 million) larger than that forecast in the budget seven months earlier. After five years of the biggest deficits in PNG’s history, public debt has blown out from K21 billion to K25 billion—or from 29 percent of gross domestic product to 34.5 per cent.
Like its predecessors, the task was to carry out the requirements of the international banks and transnational companies that dominate the country’s economy and dictate terms to the country’s corporate class and keep investors happy. It is unfolding now, the reality intensifying, and nothing long - term is happening to improve the living standards of working class and rural masses, and the landowners of major resource projects, who are targets of police-military repression when the issue for a better stake in the cake is put to the government. Any opposition and unrest or dissent against the government is stopped for the sake of stability of the country.
O’Neill has clung to power in the face of struggles by students and workers over inequality, corruption and the country’s deepening social crisis. The government has increasingly turned to police-state measures to suppress opposition. The development agenda underpinned by Prime Minister Peter Oneill's Alotau 1 and Alotau 2 Accords seem just hollow now. It means the country may be on the verge of collapse, and Peter Oneill has no answer to deliver the country. The LNG economic boom promised by the Australian-backed gas project failed to deliver PNG, the economic boom all false.
The new Oneill - Abel government that took office after the 2017 National General Elections immediately confronted a deepening fiscal crisis. The Midyear Economic and Fiscal Outlook from the Treasury revealed a deficit one billion Kina ($US309 million) larger than that forecast in the budget seven months earlier. After five years of the biggest deficits in PNG’s history, public debt has blown out from K21 billion to K25 billion—or from 29 percent of gross domestic product to 34.5 per cent.
Like its predecessors, the task was to carry out the requirements of the international banks and transnational companies that dominate the country’s economy and dictate terms to the country’s corporate class and keep investors happy. It is unfolding now, the reality intensifying, and nothing long - term is happening to improve the living standards of working class and rural masses, and the landowners of major resource projects, who are targets of police-military repression when the issue for a better stake in the cake is put to the government. Any opposition and unrest or dissent against the government is stopped for the sake of stability of the country.
Yet, the legitimacy of the Oneill - Abel regime is called into question, and the way forward is blurred by its lack of accountability. The 2017 National General Elections tested some of the assumptions on Prime Minister Peter Oneill's party PNC, but he returned to office.
And, the questions of legitimacy of state remained unsolved.
There are a number of perspectives on the legitimacy of the Oneill - Abel regime. The UBS Scandal was one. It landed Papua New Guinea Prime Minister Peter Oneill in trouble with the Ombudsman Commission, which is yet to come undone. Another was the warrant of arrest for the Prime Minister Peter Oneill. He faced a warrant of arrest issued by the Waigani District Court since 2014 for his role in the illegal payment of Paul Paraka Lawyers but fought his fate before the courts to stop the arrest. It was alleged by the PNG anti - corruption police that he authorized the payment.
The UBS scandal is defined by the stealth, and the rush, to have the deal pushed through without proper scrutiny by Parliament. It seems the lessons have never registered properly, that the credibility of the options to bail the PNG economy out were always left on the table. Prime Minister Peter Oneill may have repeated the same mistake, or may be there was no other option left except to have Papua New Guinea launch its first Eurobond which he announced recently whilst attending the CHOG Meeting in London.
A look at history is in order. It was fifteen years ealier that he successfully squirmed himself out of the fraud charges that came out of the NPF scandal investigation. He survived the fallout. After the NPF scandal, he won the electoral contest three times, and is now a three - term MP. However, the scrutiny on him escalated with his rise in politics. The warrant of arrest for him has been stalled for now.
His problem is the UBS loan scandal.
Now, Peter O’Neill is back in the ring again minus the threat of a warrant of arrest. In his fight to the 'last breath' this time he is facing his greatest challenge. When the ombudsman made known the charges against him, he went to court to question the authority of the Public Prosecutor. The Ombudsman Commission referred him to the Public Prosecutor to appoint a leadership tribunal to look in to the 3 charges filed by the Ombudsman Commission in reference to the UBS loan scandal.
Peter O’Neill has earned a solid reputation as being able to slip away from the PNG Police, Ombudsman Commission, Courts, and Parliament. In 2016, the Supreme Court ordered that parliament meet and deliberate a censure vote on Prime Minister Peter Oneill nullifying the Parliamentary Committee on Vote of No Confidence which recommended against the vote going ahead saying he already had a majority support on the floor so any censure vote was malicious. Despite the antagonism on the floor of parliament and on the streets, he was able to hold onto for long.
Peter O’Neill has earned a solid reputation as being able to slip away from the PNG Police, Ombudsman Commission, Courts, and Parliament. In 2016, the Supreme Court ordered that parliament meet and deliberate a censure vote on Prime Minister Peter Oneill nullifying the Parliamentary Committee on Vote of No Confidence which recommended against the vote going ahead saying he already had a majority support on the floor so any censure vote was malicious. Despite the antagonism on the floor of parliament and on the streets, he was able to hold onto for long.
The Opposition failed to muster the numbers to overthrow Peter Oneill in a Vote of No Confidence with 2017 National General Elections months away. As a mechanism of checks and balance the censure vote on the Prime Minister on the floor of parliament was a test of legitimacy for the Oneill - Dion regime given the rising antagonism against the government. The result showed it was a positive vote for PNG PM but this was unlikely to end unrest. The influential anti-corruption activists backed off off with their heads spinning in total confusion. It seems Peter O’Neill can shed his skin like a snake and squeeze through the smallest holes like the most slippery eel. The late arch criminal William Kapris spoke about the corruption of politicians, and Peter O’Neill may fit into the mold as Kapris, probably better than him.
He was placed back in office when the country’s parliament reconvened following the 2017 National Elections. O’Neill received 60 votes from newly elected parliamentarians, with 46 voting against. He now began a second five-year term, but with a significantly decreased majority. But, since the formation of the new Oneill - Abel regime Pangu Pati leader and former Deputy Opposition Leader Sam Basil crossed the floor from the Opposition ranks with 10 of his followers to consolidate the government side. Another two defections from the Opposition followed with Governor for West Sepik Tony Wouwou and fellow Sepik politician and MP for Wosera Gawi Joseph Yopiyopi calling it a day sitting lonely in the Opposition. The temptation to see other MPs eating from greener pastures with Prime Minister Peter Oneill's party PNC was a plateful.
He was placed back in office when the country’s parliament reconvened following the 2017 National Elections. O’Neill received 60 votes from newly elected parliamentarians, with 46 voting against. He now began a second five-year term, but with a significantly decreased majority. But, since the formation of the new Oneill - Abel regime Pangu Pati leader and former Deputy Opposition Leader Sam Basil crossed the floor from the Opposition ranks with 10 of his followers to consolidate the government side. Another two defections from the Opposition followed with Governor for West Sepik Tony Wouwou and fellow Sepik politician and MP for Wosera Gawi Joseph Yopiyopi calling it a day sitting lonely in the Opposition. The temptation to see other MPs eating from greener pastures with Prime Minister Peter Oneill's party PNC was a plateful.
The Public Prosecutor Pondros Kaluwin
All eyes are on the public prosecutor, Pondros Kaluwin. But, Peter O’Neill is holding the usual winning hand that has gotten him through these kinds of scrapes before. The public prosecutor was recently re - appointed for another term by the government and will be challenged to consider the Ombudsman Commission’s submission to refer him to a leadership tribunal over the UBS loan saga.
The last time the Ombudsman Commission failed to have the Prime Minister Peter Oneill prosecuted for leadership misconduct by a leadership tribunal was when the court ruled the evidence filed against him did not add up. It will have to be the Public Prosecutor's call. PNG laws say the Ombudsman Commission must produce evidence to back up allegations that satisfy all 3 of the following: That there be SUFFICIENT, that there be CREDIBLE and that their be COGENT evidence in order for the Public Prosecutor to request the Chief Justice to appoint a Leadership Tribunal.
This is a high set of requirements. It would require the Ombudsman Commission to perform its role in looking for the information, and meet the requirements in all 3 areas. The recommendation to the Chief Justice by the Public Prosecutor will need the Ombudsman Commission to do its job well.
Peter O’Neill may win again and carve another notch on his old squirm out of trouble magic stick unless the Public Prosecutor is able to make a decision and give the correct justification for his decision that sounds like it’s coming from the mind of an honest man without prejudice. What will be Peter O’Neill’s trick to influence the Public Prosecutor to drag his feet on the request to the Chief Justice to appoint a leadership tribunal? The prediction is he will bribe him.
Kaluwin Pondros has already been re - appointed as Public Prosecutor. Part one of the bribe is over. It is not important how the bribe is supposed to work, in case it is detected by whistle-blowers. But, it happens. For instance, a bribe cannot be detected directly, if there are middlemen as fake owners of businesses and intermediaries. This was the case when the UBS loan controversy first surfaced in which the Israelis of LR Group who are making a lot of money right now from the PM’s decisions were on PNG Blogs, somewhat under cover, and argued that the UBS loan was perfectly valid.
It is anybody's guess as to timing with all eyes on the Public Prosecutor to short- change him, but an opportunity will present itself for an appointment in which the intermediaries will push to see the Public Prosecutor and make the case to stop the process of referral of Prime Minister Peter Oneill for leadership misconduct.
The hypothesis is this, that the main argument to stop the referral would be that of instability in the country if Peter Oneill is referred. This is an argument the Public Prosecutor himself must believe in, and the intermediaries propose to finance his needs with a liberal deposit to whatever overseas account he prefers. In fact, the intermediaries set up the account for him turn all account information over him afterwards. As a human being the Public Prosecutor will fall for the ideas mapped out by the intermediaries: to be rich beyond his dreams with the money that will allow him and family to live the rest of their lives in comfort overseas in Australia or anywhere he wants to go; and, he can travel the world 10 x over and there will be money enough for 100 x more trips.
In addition, the promise of further bites of the pie will be the second argument used by intermediaries to get the Public Prosecutor to stop the referral. The script is that the Public Prosecutor himself has a role to play in ensuring PNG remains a secure and stable place for bonafide foreign investors and his decision will decide if this will be true or if the country will descend into chaos.
The hypothesis includes this one. Public Prosecutor will be an easy target if you dangle a mountain of forbidden fruit in front of him, that’s the name of this game!
It can all happen overtly, given the current structure of politics of patronage in the country, in which a beggar cannot be a chooser. MPs have fallen like flies. The Prime Minister Peter Oneill himself could pay the bribe in broad daylight instead of through intermediaries. If the stories about the PM’s wealth are anywhere close to the truth, he nearly has enough money to buy off the entire judiciary if he wants. But always use middlemen to do it, and make the proposal elegant, risk free and so enticing that not even a normally honest person could resist. This is termed as politics of patronage, and is normal in PNG where no one is ever caught.
The corruption trail began with the NPF saga. Then, the Paraka Lawyers illegal payment of K78 million. Now, the USB Loan question. Prime Minister Peter O’Neill and Public Prosecutor Kaluwin Pondros are navigating around the law, and the mechanisms of checks and balance to keep the former in power. It would be a dictatorship when all arms of government are paralyzed, and not functioning to protect democracy.
'Fake News Factor' - There are no blunders says PM Peter Oneill
Prime Minister Peter Oneill's rise to power is characterised by the alleged blunders he has made in coming to terms with Papua New Guinea's turmoil, which is an expression of the explosive social tensions produced by the austerity policies imposed when he took office over the past six years.
O’Neill seized office in 2011 by ousting his predecessor Michael Somare in an illegal parliamentary coup. He is exhausting all options in defining the alleged blunders as just fake news, unperturbed. And, his interest is to continue to focus on managing the national economy and advancing the nation. This is because as he said, "In politics there will always be spoilers who seek to cause trouble for the democratically elected government, but we will not let this distract us from our economic development agenda."
O’Neill seized office in 2011 by ousting his predecessor Michael Somare in an illegal parliamentary coup. He is exhausting all options in defining the alleged blunders as just fake news, unperturbed. And, his interest is to continue to focus on managing the national economy and advancing the nation. This is because as he said, "In politics there will always be spoilers who seek to cause trouble for the democratically elected government, but we will not let this distract us from our economic development agenda."
And, he is not about to throw in the towel: "My only concern is that investors are not put-off by ongoing political attacks. PNG has a robust democracy and from time-to-time attempts are made to undermine the government. But the government remains politically strong....our results ......in advancing the economy speak for themselves."
So, his definition of what constitutes a blunder is clear, by hook or crook. The PNG LNG project that promised economic boom for the country has been described as an illusion. But, Prime Minister Peter Oneill slammed the report calling it a fake report.
Peter Oneill has successfully held onto power as he wields it to his advantage, and cut his way through the mid- day traffic. He has survived the challenges to his rule and found his place in the scheme of things. In the politics of Melanesia, and the approaches to state, power, and governance that inspire or destroy leaders, the audacity to hope to lead at all costs must come with its baggage.
And, he will soon start counting the costs, on his own watch. But, it will depend on the ability of his opponents to derail his definition of instability which is playing out well and is the dominant paradigm uncontested by the mechanisms of checks and balances and separation of powers found in the PNG Constitution. It will also depend on his gamble with super power rivalry in the region which so far measured up to the occasion and caused the polarisation of PNG's development agenda seen in terms of keeping the flow of funds coming, and importantly cashing in on the rivalry in the region. And, anyone talking the country down was circulating misinformation based on the wrong definition of instability, or its antonym stability, a matter of semantics.
He might have a point here. The US and North Korea are both keen on "denuclearization". But, what it means depends on whom you are asking. Washington's idea of "the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula," as Trump tweeted late last month, means Kim handing over his nuclear weapons and missile systems and allowing international inspectors to check that the regime is keeping its word.
In contrast, Pyongyang has other building blocks of logic, and it means something very, very different. It means mutual steps to get rid of nuclear weapons, including requiring the United States to take down the nuclear umbrella it has put up over South Korea and Japan. This analogy is applicable in terms of the meaning of stability used by Prime Minister Peter Oneill since he assumed office at the height of the 2011/2012 political impasse. It is the difference in definition that could toll a death knell for any hopes to give credit to Peter Oneill where it is due. In a worse case scenario, the alternative is a dictatorship, which will be the solution before the civil society even asks what happened at best, and at worse just watch it happen.
If justice is delivered it solves the salient questions of legitimacy of state. In a capitalist state, the role of the State is 'relatively autonomous'. It means one thing, that justice is best delivered when it is blind. It also restores the legitimacy of State in that people accept the role of their leaders to serve the interest of the electorates above the interests of foreign investors and the banks in New York, Paris, Washington, Tokyo, London, and Canberra.
Prime Minister Peter Oneill - is he a dictator, and trying to prolong his rule?
Peter Oneill's problem is to accomodate interests of toxic people, who perhaps were stuck in the past and focused on the negative, and in that mentality, the way going forward to translate his role to lead the country into success and joy would be impossible. Yet, a right - wing dictatorship was a necessary step given the negative outlook on where the country was heading up until the 2011/2012 political impasse. The struggle for better government lead to a dictatorship, if the indicators are scientifically credible.
Yet, his message is simple. Unless previous prime ministers and governments did something like his record shows, there was only one option left - to preserve his Oneil - Abel regime.
And, a dictatorship flourishes in an authoritarian or top-down form of government. This evidence is taken for granted because of Peter Oneill's close proximity to the industrial lobby in the country which showed up profusely during a PNC fundraising dinner hosted by Prime Minister recently. The left of the political divide or spectrum is there. In this category of MPs and leaders are politicians who have a preference for more egalitarian and a bottom-up form of government. For instance, Northern Governor Gary Juffa opposes secret deals to allow illegal logging in the Collingwood Area of Northern Province because he prefers a bottom - up process to involve landowners to share the production. His platform sees the government as taking sides with foreign investors, by definition odious, and power does tend to corrupt.
It may be argued by antagonists that the civil society since 2011 when Peter Oneill assumed office is calling for more accountability by the Prime Minister because it sees the government heading further to the right-wing. According to theory of politics, as opposed to practice, the further one goes to the right, the better the chance things can get downright ugly. However, the left is no guarantee of panacea as egalitarian popular rule may or may not get the necessary done.
It might happen, or will happen. The reason for any dictatorship to be overthrown is because of the salient questions of legitimacy of state, which remained unsolved. Peter O’Neill's skill has earned him a solid reputation as being able to slip away from the PNG Police, Ombudsman Commission, Courts, and Parliament. In 2016, the Supreme Court ordered that parliament meet and deliberate a censure vote on Prime Minister Peter Oneill. And, his lack of accountability, if any, will persist and prevail, unless justice can be delivered to deal with the issue of accountable government beginning from the 2011/2012 political impasse.
If justice is delivered it solves the salient questions of legitimacy of state. In a capitalist state, the role of the State is 'relatively autonomous'. It means one thing, that justice is best delivered when it is blind. It also restores the legitimacy of State in that people accept the role of their leaders to serve the interest of the electorates above the interests of foreign investors and the banks in New York, Paris, Washington, Tokyo, London, and Canberra.
Prime Minister Peter Oneill - is he a dictator, and trying to prolong his rule?
A manual for strengthening any power position of an elected leader would be a blue - print. Papua New Guinea is a democracy. And, Peter Oneill is a democratically elected leader. If, he is getting absolute power it is no easy feat. Just look at Hitler, or more recently, at Zimbabwe’s Mugabe, Russia’s Putin or Turkey’s Erdogan. Peter Oneill may be a dictator. Here are some helpful tips to see if he intends to go that far with a prolonged iron rule.
1. Expand your power base through nepotism and corruption.
This is not just a tactic adopted in Third World countries. Scandals like Bridgegate, Koreagate, Monicagate and Watergate demonstrate that the powerful will always find ways to abuse their privileges. Be warned, though: you will eventually be rumbled, so corruption tends to work only in the short term.
The lesson: Better make sure to surround yourself with loyal kin who you can trust to do what’s best for you and your family.
2. Instigate a monopoly on the use of force to curb public protest.
Dictators cannot survive for long without disarming the people and buttering up the military. Former dictators such as Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan, Mobutu Sese Seko of the Congo and Idi Amin of Uganda were high-ranked army officers who co-opted the military in order to overthrow democracies in favour of dictatorships. Yet democracies are not always more popular than dictatorships. In reality, people prefer dictatorships if the alternative is chaos. This explains the nostalgia for rulers like Stalin and Mao, who were mass murderers but who provided social order. One retired middle-ranking official in Beijing told the Asia Times: "I earned less than 100 yuan a month in Mao's time. I could barely save each month but I never worried about anything. My work unit would take care of everything for me: housing, medical care, and my children's education, though there were no luxuries. … Now I receive 3,000 yuan as a [monthly]pension, but I have to count every penny - everything is so expensive and no one will take care of me now if I fall ill."
Indeed when given the choice in an experiment, people will desert an unstructured group (analogous to an anything-goes society) and seek the order of a "punishing regime," which has the authority to identify and reprimand cheats. This lawlessness can be seen in hunter-gatherer tribes too. When anthropologists visited a New Guinea tribe they found that a third of males suffered a violent death.
The lesson: Any aspiring dictator who restores order, even through coercion, is likely to earn the gratitude of his people.
3. Curry favour by providing public goods efficiently and generously.
Benevolent dictatorship was practised by Lee Kuan Yew, prime minister of Singapore for 31 years. Lee believed that ordinary people could not be entrusted with power because it would corrupt them, and that economics was the major stabilizing force in society. To this end, he effectively eliminated all opposition by using his constitutional powers to detain suspects without trial for two years without the right of appeal. To implement his economic policies, Lee allowed only one political party, one newspaper, one trade union movement and one language. He encouraged people to uphold the family system, discipline their children, be more courteous and avoid pornography. As well as setting up a government dating service for single graduates, he urged people to take better aim in public toilets and handed out hefty fines for littering. Singaporeans tolerated these restrictions on their freedom because they valued their economic security more. On this point, Lee did not disappoint, turning Singapore into one of the world's wealthiest countries (per capita).
The lesson: Restore the economy, develop large infrastructural projects that create a lot of jobs and it will strengthen your power base.
4. Get rid of your political enemies - or, more cleverly, embrace them in the hope that the bear hug will neutralize them. Zimbabwe’s Mobutu abandoned the unpopular practice of murdering political rivals and instead bribed them, with political office, for their support. Idi Amin, who came to power in Uganda after a military coup, stuck with the murderous route: During his eight years at the top, he is estimated to have killed between 80,000 and 300,000 people. His victims included cabinet ministers, judicial figures, bankers, intellectuals, journalists and a former prime minister. At the lower end of the scale, that's a hit rate of 27 executions a day.
The lesson: Keep your political enemies close to you.
5. Create and defeat a common enemy. By facing down Nazi Germany, Churchill, de Gaulle, Roosevelt and Stalin sealed their reputations as great leaders. Legendary warlords such as Alexander the Great, Genghis Khan and Napoleon were military geniuses who expanded their countries' territories through invading their neighbours. Dictatorships feed on wars and other external threats because these justify their existence - swift military action requires a central command-and-control structure.
More than half of 20th-century rulers engaged in battles at some point during their reign, either as aggressors or defenders. Among dictators the proportion rises to 88 per cent. Democratic rulers find this tactic more difficult to adopt because most wars are unpopular with voters. To attract support, the ruler must be perceived as a defender, not a warmonger. The former British prime minister Margaret Thatcher received a lucky boost to her popularity after Argentina, a military dwarf, invaded the British-owned Falkland Islands; she triumphed over her Argentine enemies. Another former British PM, Tony Blair, was not so lucky. Although the 9/11 attacks did much to strengthen his government, his decision to attack Iraq (ostensibly to defend Britain from a long-range missile attack) sullied his legacy.
The lesson: Start a war when your position as leader becomes insecure. Having generals in top political posts should certainly help.
6 . Accumulate power by manipulating the hearts and minds of your citizens.
One of the first actions of any aspiring dictator should be to control the free flow of information, because it plugs a potential channel of criticism. Turn the media into a propaganda machine for your regime like Hitler did and Erdogan does now. Other leaders, such as Myanmar's ruling junta, shut down media outlets completely. Democratically elected leaders are somewhat more restrained, but if they have enough powers they can rig an election or do away with meddlesome journalists (like Vladimir Putin's Russia) or, if money is no object, build their own media empire.
Former Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi owned nearly half the Italian media, encompassing national television channels, radio stations, newspapers and magazines. Unsurprisingly, these outlets carefully managed Berlusconi's public image and shielded him from criticism. Aspiring dictators should note that muzzling the media is most effective in an ordered society: a 2007 poll of more than 11,000 people in 14 countries, on behalf of the BBC, found that 40 per cent of respondents across countries from India to Finland thought social harmony more important than press freedom.
The lesson: Control the media or, even better, own the media. It’s as simple as that.
7. Create an ideology to justify an exalted position
Throughout history, leaders have used or, in some cases, invented an ideology to legitimize their power. In the original chiefdoms like Hawaii the chiefs were both political leaders and priests, who claimed to be communicating with the gods in order to bring about a generous harvest. Conveniently, this ideology often passed as an explanation of why the chief should occupy the role for life, and why the post should pass to the chief's descendants. Accordingly, these chiefdoms spent much time and effort building temples and other religious institutions, to give a formal structure to the chief's power. Henry VIII of England started his own religion when the Pope refused to annul his marriage to Catherine of Aragon. He created the Church of England, appointed himself Supreme Head and granted his own annulment. Other ideologies include personality cults such as Mao-ism or Stalinism; some serve to unite a nation divided by ethnicity, religion or language.
The lesson: Build buildings and erect statues in your honor, and get the Church on your side.
1. Expand your power base through nepotism and corruption.
This is not just a tactic adopted in Third World countries. Scandals like Bridgegate, Koreagate, Monicagate and Watergate demonstrate that the powerful will always find ways to abuse their privileges. Be warned, though: you will eventually be rumbled, so corruption tends to work only in the short term.
The lesson: Better make sure to surround yourself with loyal kin who you can trust to do what’s best for you and your family.
2. Instigate a monopoly on the use of force to curb public protest.
Dictators cannot survive for long without disarming the people and buttering up the military. Former dictators such as Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan, Mobutu Sese Seko of the Congo and Idi Amin of Uganda were high-ranked army officers who co-opted the military in order to overthrow democracies in favour of dictatorships. Yet democracies are not always more popular than dictatorships. In reality, people prefer dictatorships if the alternative is chaos. This explains the nostalgia for rulers like Stalin and Mao, who were mass murderers but who provided social order. One retired middle-ranking official in Beijing told the Asia Times: "I earned less than 100 yuan a month in Mao's time. I could barely save each month but I never worried about anything. My work unit would take care of everything for me: housing, medical care, and my children's education, though there were no luxuries. … Now I receive 3,000 yuan as a [monthly]pension, but I have to count every penny - everything is so expensive and no one will take care of me now if I fall ill."
Indeed when given the choice in an experiment, people will desert an unstructured group (analogous to an anything-goes society) and seek the order of a "punishing regime," which has the authority to identify and reprimand cheats. This lawlessness can be seen in hunter-gatherer tribes too. When anthropologists visited a New Guinea tribe they found that a third of males suffered a violent death.
The lesson: Any aspiring dictator who restores order, even through coercion, is likely to earn the gratitude of his people.
3. Curry favour by providing public goods efficiently and generously.
Benevolent dictatorship was practised by Lee Kuan Yew, prime minister of Singapore for 31 years. Lee believed that ordinary people could not be entrusted with power because it would corrupt them, and that economics was the major stabilizing force in society. To this end, he effectively eliminated all opposition by using his constitutional powers to detain suspects without trial for two years without the right of appeal. To implement his economic policies, Lee allowed only one political party, one newspaper, one trade union movement and one language. He encouraged people to uphold the family system, discipline their children, be more courteous and avoid pornography. As well as setting up a government dating service for single graduates, he urged people to take better aim in public toilets and handed out hefty fines for littering. Singaporeans tolerated these restrictions on their freedom because they valued their economic security more. On this point, Lee did not disappoint, turning Singapore into one of the world's wealthiest countries (per capita).
The lesson: Restore the economy, develop large infrastructural projects that create a lot of jobs and it will strengthen your power base.
4. Get rid of your political enemies - or, more cleverly, embrace them in the hope that the bear hug will neutralize them. Zimbabwe’s Mobutu abandoned the unpopular practice of murdering political rivals and instead bribed them, with political office, for their support. Idi Amin, who came to power in Uganda after a military coup, stuck with the murderous route: During his eight years at the top, he is estimated to have killed between 80,000 and 300,000 people. His victims included cabinet ministers, judicial figures, bankers, intellectuals, journalists and a former prime minister. At the lower end of the scale, that's a hit rate of 27 executions a day.
The lesson: Keep your political enemies close to you.
5. Create and defeat a common enemy. By facing down Nazi Germany, Churchill, de Gaulle, Roosevelt and Stalin sealed their reputations as great leaders. Legendary warlords such as Alexander the Great, Genghis Khan and Napoleon were military geniuses who expanded their countries' territories through invading their neighbours. Dictatorships feed on wars and other external threats because these justify their existence - swift military action requires a central command-and-control structure.
More than half of 20th-century rulers engaged in battles at some point during their reign, either as aggressors or defenders. Among dictators the proportion rises to 88 per cent. Democratic rulers find this tactic more difficult to adopt because most wars are unpopular with voters. To attract support, the ruler must be perceived as a defender, not a warmonger. The former British prime minister Margaret Thatcher received a lucky boost to her popularity after Argentina, a military dwarf, invaded the British-owned Falkland Islands; she triumphed over her Argentine enemies. Another former British PM, Tony Blair, was not so lucky. Although the 9/11 attacks did much to strengthen his government, his decision to attack Iraq (ostensibly to defend Britain from a long-range missile attack) sullied his legacy.
The lesson: Start a war when your position as leader becomes insecure. Having generals in top political posts should certainly help.
6 . Accumulate power by manipulating the hearts and minds of your citizens.
One of the first actions of any aspiring dictator should be to control the free flow of information, because it plugs a potential channel of criticism. Turn the media into a propaganda machine for your regime like Hitler did and Erdogan does now. Other leaders, such as Myanmar's ruling junta, shut down media outlets completely. Democratically elected leaders are somewhat more restrained, but if they have enough powers they can rig an election or do away with meddlesome journalists (like Vladimir Putin's Russia) or, if money is no object, build their own media empire.
Former Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi owned nearly half the Italian media, encompassing national television channels, radio stations, newspapers and magazines. Unsurprisingly, these outlets carefully managed Berlusconi's public image and shielded him from criticism. Aspiring dictators should note that muzzling the media is most effective in an ordered society: a 2007 poll of more than 11,000 people in 14 countries, on behalf of the BBC, found that 40 per cent of respondents across countries from India to Finland thought social harmony more important than press freedom.
The lesson: Control the media or, even better, own the media. It’s as simple as that.
7. Create an ideology to justify an exalted position
Throughout history, leaders have used or, in some cases, invented an ideology to legitimize their power. In the original chiefdoms like Hawaii the chiefs were both political leaders and priests, who claimed to be communicating with the gods in order to bring about a generous harvest. Conveniently, this ideology often passed as an explanation of why the chief should occupy the role for life, and why the post should pass to the chief's descendants. Accordingly, these chiefdoms spent much time and effort building temples and other religious institutions, to give a formal structure to the chief's power. Henry VIII of England started his own religion when the Pope refused to annul his marriage to Catherine of Aragon. He created the Church of England, appointed himself Supreme Head and granted his own annulment. Other ideologies include personality cults such as Mao-ism or Stalinism; some serve to unite a nation divided by ethnicity, religion or language.
The lesson: Build buildings and erect statues in your honor, and get the Church on your side.
Alotau 1 and 2 Accords - Checkmate.
The Prime Minister Peter Oneill's preoccupation as a politician can be explained by a need to engage in a linear, polarized construct with two primary wings that sees the world as a deep battleground on which the circus comes down to bringing about societal progress. In PNG because of ' New Guinea Style' there may be another platform that sees the political spectrum as more than a two chart typology, or even as an interconnected web with as many as ten or fifteen differing options. But, the signposts are there. In 5th-century BC Greece, and elsewhere in Persia and Asia, despots ruled and called all the shots including treating their subjects as slaves.
In the worse case scenario, the current debt situation will call for the strongman form of government with power vested in one or a small number of persons who may hold life-and-death power over their subjects. This is where the problem starts for Prime Minister Peter Oneill. His antagonists point to the blunders he allegedly made from the time he took office in 2011/2012. And, he continues to do so. For instance, the Queen of England's representatives on the ground who connect PNG to Buckingham Palance and Royalty are PNC party members, with the Speaker of Parliament and Manus Regional MP Job Pomat also Deputy Party Leader of PNC. The Governor - General Sir Bob Dadae is in a confronting situation to do his job properly.
It adds salt to the wound when Communications Minister and MP for Bulolo Sam Basil now comes up with the SIM Card Deregistration Project, which goes against the interest of the rural majority.The industrial lobby is happy. Thus, the anatomy of a deep battleground and political spectrum with left - wing and right - wing chart typology and platform is unfolding already. And, at whose cost? Politics is defined as a question of who gets what, when, where, how, and why, and at whose expense.
Countries die. Nations fade away. The ancient civilisation of Athens could be a yardstick to decipher what is really happening in Papua New Guinea, a nation at the crossroads. Thucydides wrote that Themistocles' greatness lay in the fact that he realized Athens was not immortal. PNG is not immortal; but, if it is going to go, let it go with a bang rather than a whimper. In the intervening years since the era of ancient civilisation of Athens, the story seemed to unfold. Thus, Czechoslovakia, East Germany, Yugoslavia, the U.S.S.R have all slipped beneath history's waves, supplanted by something else entirely. PNG may be capturing something monstrous and horrific happening.
As things stand today, under PNC Party and Prime Minister Peter Oneill perhaps power has replaced law, usurpation has replaced amendment, and executive fiat has replaced constitutionalism. These are strong words indeed! It does not surprise political scientists.
They do die. Great nations - however great they may be - are not eternal. Alotau 1 and 2, checkmate!
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